An interesting piece of reading! Taking a break from the Obama-fever (congrats to him btw), this piece about conspiracy theories in general really gives you a refreshing take on the subject matter. Ripped off from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4319574.stm
By Harold Evans
In his weekly opinion column, Harold Evans takes issue with Michael Crichton's latest thriller, in which global warming is the work of mad eco-scientists.
Do you ever read that line on an early page of a novel: "Any connection between the characters and events herein portrayed, and real people, is purely coincidental."
In Michael Crichton's State of Fear, I'd say the connection was purely intentional. It's about the kind of hurricanes, floods, tsunamis and tornadoes we've been experiencing. Crichton's trade is to bring pleasurable terror to millions by spinning tales of science gone amok - as in Jurassic Park and the Andromeda Strain.
In this new bestseller those hurricanes etc aren't natural disasters at all. They are the creations of global warming activists - eco-maniacs desperate to publicise the case for controlling emissions of carbon dioxide. To make sure you get his point, Crichton adds a 32-page footnote documenting his own conviction that global warming is an unscientific scare.
What about the contrary worldwide consensus of scientists that global warming is a man-made disaster in the making? Crichton's answer: "If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus." As I suppose in the old consensus that the earth is flat.
Crichton's is not actually a thesis that the displaced folks in Louisiana and Texas can concentrate on at the moment in the wake of Katrina and Rita. Yet for his polemic on global warming, Crichton has become something of a hero to the groups fighting hard to stop anything like the Kyoto treaty.
The well-endowed think tank, the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy, honoured Crichton with an invitation to Washington to address its members - not on the novel, but on science policy in the 21st Century. The point of that was to embrace Crichton's attack on what he calls the pseudo-science of global warming. It's not easy to embrace Crichton himself; he is an intimidating 6ft 9 inches.
Michael Crichton: 'Something of a hero'
The sceptics on global warming needed this kind of reinforcement. They have mostly been keeping quiet after the ferocity of Katrina and Rita, widely blamed in the press on the unusually hot waters of the Gulf. Al Gore, in a rousing "action now" speech that impressed business leaders at the Clinton summit in New York recently, pointed out that since the 1970s, hurricanes both in the Atlantic and Pacific have increased in intensity by about 50%.
'Great hoax'?
It is quite significant that while President Bush has been active on hurricane relief, he has not reiterated his well-aired doubts about whether global warming is a real threat or a scare. Nor have we heard much from the Republican chairman of the Senate Environment Committee.
Senator James Inhofe's previous best effort was this: "With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all of the phoney science, could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people? It sure sounds like it."
The senator did not explain quite how 2,000 top scientists in 100 countries could have been persuaded in 2004 to produce a rare consensus that gas emissions left unchecked will produce a series of catastrophes. Nor is he likely to try and explain in the post-Katrina atmosphere.
Hurricanes are now more intenseThe conspiracy Crichton outlined in his novel might seem tailor-made for Hollywood - scientists manipulating weather systems to suit their own leftie agenda. But it is very much in the paranoid political style identified by the renowned historian Richard Hofstadter. There are still people who just know that FDR conspired with Winston Churchill to have the Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor. There are millions who just know that JFK's assassin, the shooter on the grassy hill in Dallas, was hired by Lyndon Johnson.
As a historian, I have never been much impressed by conspiracy theories left or right. Too often, they are exalted by non-evidence - "proved" by records that have disappeared, "witnesses" whose stories have been suppressed. But if you happen to be in the market for a conspiracy theory today, there's a rather more credible one documented by the pressure group Greenpeace. Just bend an ear for a moment for the names of a few organizations very much concerned with global warming.
You wouldn't guess it but all these highfalutin bodies are dedicated to undermining the science of global warming and preventing America signing something like the Kyoto Treaty. And again, you wouldn't guess it, but they take thousands of dollars from Exxon Mobil. It's the world's largest oil company and a high profile opponent of Kyoto for imposing too many costs on the developed world.
- Advancement of Sound Science Centre Inc
- Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow
- Heartland Institute
- Competitive Enterprise Institute
- Annapolis Center for Science-based Public Policy
The five groups I mentioned are not the only ones with deceptive titles. Greenpeace has identified 40 such mouths at the Exxon nipple. So what's wrong about this? For one thing I'd guess you'd be a bit more sceptical of their pronouncements on global warming if they made it clear that they are not - shall we say - unrelated to the interests of their Exxon sponsors.
Grazing on drought-stricken landI asked Exxon about supporting so many of these propaganda groups. They point out that pro-Kyoto foundations give out much more money than they do, and that's true. What's disturbing to me is that the groups Exxon supports are much less forthcoming about their connections; they are often treated in the media as if they were wholly independent scientific bodies.
In addition Exxon has done something positive in committing $100m to Stanford University for research into new energy technology. So where's the rub? Well, funding long-term research like this is all well and good. The trouble is - as the economist Keynes famously said in another context - in the long-term we are all dead. The damage is being done here and now every day. It is accelerating - and it is damage that could be irreversible.
Smear tactics
All the delaying tactics, denials and obfuscations bring to mind what happened in 1974 to two American scientists, Professor Sherwood Roland and Dr Mario Molina. They coolly set out the evidence that the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in refrigeration, aerosols and air conditioning were eating at the ozone layer which protects mankind and plants from dangerous ultraviolet radiation.
They were at once smeared as scaremongers. The manufacturers ran an all too successful campaign to fog the issue. A lazy media bought into it. The public got bored and bamboozled. And as they did so, millions more tons of the pollutant were added to the atmosphere.
The era of procrastination is coming to a close; in its place we are entering a period of consequences
Winston ChurchillThirteen years later when the world finally woke up to an ozone hole bigger than anyone had predicted, there was a swift international agreement - led by the US - to find alternatives to the CFCs. In the meantime, great damage had been done.
Winston Churchill back in the 1930s had this to say about another government that didn't believe a threat was real. As the Chamberlain Cabinet dithered about Hitler, Churchill warned: "They go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent."
And he concluded: "The era of procrastination, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."
We are entering that period now with global warming. And if quoting Churchill in this context puts me in Michael Crichton's class of conspirators, I will bear it with fortitude.
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